Research by the bipartisan group No Labels has uncovered evidence of a great opportunity for third-parties in general, and the American Solidarity Party in particular. While many of the results are rather intuitive to anyone living in America nowadays, it does give some evidence to the reality we all suspected: the two-party system is failing. Large numbers (as many as three in five) of voters are open to the possibility of supporting an independent candidate, indicating massive dissatisfaction with the current state of affairs, as well as openness to something better.
Part of the problem is undoubtedly due to the unpopularity of the two candidates. Neither Trump nor Biden are the most exemplary candidates the two parties have ever put forward. But there are some indications that this problem runs deeper than mere dislike of Trump and Biden. It is a real possibility that the two party system is primarily supported and perpetuated by the older Boomer generation, and that younger Millennial and Gen Z generations will opt for an entirely different system. The American Solidarity Party could be just the thing Americans have been waiting for.
Important Gleanings from No Labels’Research
While it would be redundant to re-state all the conclusions No Labels has drawn from their research, there are a few takeaways that are very valuable to Solidarians. First is the realization that a relatively small portion of the country—only about 32%, or under a third—could be considered “hardcore” supporters of either Biden or Trump. That means that over two-thirds of the nation are either opposed to or weak supporters of the current options. Even if weak supporters of Biden and Trump are eliminated from the picture, that still leaves 27% of the overall electorate who identify as “independent,” i.e. sufficiently dissatisfied with both parties to reject outright support for either of them. No Labels suggests that up to 58% of the populace could be feasibly convinced to vote for a viable third option.
Especially interesting is the fact that 63% of surveyed people in battleground states are open to voting for a moderate candidate. This indicates a tactical advantage that a high-profile moderate candidate could have in the general election. While it is extremely unlikely that the two-party system will be broken this election cycle (evidenced by the recent decision on No Labels’ part to not run a candidate this year), the increasing dissatisfaction with the system is likely to grow, not shrink, especially given that younger generations increasingly identify as independent in a trend that began back in 2009.
No Labels’Research Confirms Hidden Tribes’Data
No Labels’ current research generally confirms that the data gathered by the Hidden Tribes project several years ago is an enduring trend. In a nutshell, Hidden Tribes’ research suggests that behind the façade of “Right vs Left,” Americans can be roughly categorized into the following seven categories (listed from Left to Right):
Progressive Activists (8%)
Traditional Liberals (11%)
Passive Liberals (15%)
Politically Disengaged (26%)
Moderates (15%)
Traditional Conservatives (19%)
Devoted Conservatives (6%)
Notice that according to Hidden Tribes, only over half of the country (59%) could be considered a supporter of either side (34% Left, 25% Right), while only 14% could be considered “hardcore” supporters of either side (8% Left, 6% Right). This means that there is much more common ground than most Americans generally have supposed. A total of 41% of the country falls into the “Politically Disengaged” and “Moderate” categories—more support than either party has individually. If the ASP could tap into these two demographics, as well as potentially draw support from the disgruntled members of the Passive Liberal and Traditional Conservative sides, the ASP would be able to makes its appeal to up to three-quarters of potential voters.
The ASP Advantage
One of the problems with most third parties in America nowadays is that they usually end up supporting a niche cause that should really just be a caucus within one of the two major parties. For instance, the Green Party supports traditionally Democratic causes, while the Constitution Party often appeals to disaffected Republicans. This drastically limits their ability to appeal to the category of people who are simply tired of both options. As younger generations increasingly identify as politically independent or disengaged due to rebellion against partisanship, there is a growing need for a party that can tap into the rising generations’ desire for a moderate option that will surpass bipartisan infighting and actually work for the benefit of the country.
This is a role that the ASP could naturally fill quite well. While not a simple compromise between Left and Right, its policies are generally quite moderate and based upon the idea of the common good. Additionally, its strategy of solidarity and cooperation rather than polarization comes as a breath of fresh air to people burnt out by the culture war narrative. It behooves the American Solidarity Party to take advantage of the opportunity afforded by this new opening demographic.
The ASP won’t win any state or national elections any time soon, but now is the time to spread the Solidarian message as much as possible, so that when people start looking for another option en masse, they will come to the ASP.