Stepping Stones
Nine states that will determine the Solidarity Party's future
The American Solidarity Party is still in its formative years, and has a long ways to go before it can spearhead a nation-changing movement. While it is necessary at this early stage for the ASP to recruit members across the board in every state and every region of the US, there are certain states—certain regions of certain states even—which are strategically crucial for the ASP’s goals.
The Overall Strategy
As we discussed in an earlier article on Solidarian political strategy, the key way for the Solidarity Party to attain political influence beyond the local level is to play the tiebreaker on the state level. In state legislatures where there is a fairly even balance between Republicans and Democrats, the presence of only one or two Solidarian legislators can influence the entire direction of that state’s policy in a ASP-friendly direction.
According to this way of thinking, the Solidarity Party will need to pass through three stages. First, it must identify states in which the balance of power between the two parties is very narrow—states in which one party only has a small advantage over the other. Again, while the ASP needs to gain support in all states, those states which have supermajorities or strong majorities of a given party in its state legislature are not the first place the ASP should focus on, since it will take much longer for the ASP to gain political influence.
Second, Solidarians need to look at each of these states and identify strategic districts in which the state’s majority party only has a slight advantage over the other. These districts represent the ASP’s most logical opportunity for changing the balance of power in these states since it will be possible for a third-party candidate to gain a plurality of the vote. These districts are thus the best places for the ASP to focus its attention—recruiting new supporters, running for local office, and raising general name recognition.
Third, once the ASP has achieved a basic level of influence and positive publicity in these districts, it will become feasible for ASP members to run for state legislature. Ideally, the ASP members running for these positions will have already served on the local level as mayors, school board members, etc. and thus be known personally by large numbers of people in the area. As discussed in our previous article, once the ASP is able to get members into state legislatures, then the entire game changes.
To summarize, these are the practical steps the ASP needs to take for it to have a feasible pathway to national influence:
Identify states with a close balance of power between the two parties.
Identify districts in which the state’s majority party has only a slight advantage, and create a strong party grassroots presence.
Run ASP members for state legislature, aiming for a plurality of the vote in their districts.
The First Step: Identify Prospective States
Having set out the major goalposts Solidarians need to achieve to attain political influence, we can now tackle the first goal: identifying prospective states in which the ASP has a reasonable chance to achieve its goal of tiebreaker status.
This is a fairly straightforward process. The following are the current legislatures which appear to offer the most promising prospects for the ASP:
Alaska: Coalition system
Arizona: Lower house (R 31-29), Upper house (R 16-14)
Michigan: Lower house (D 56-54), Upper house (D 20-18)
Minnesota: Lower house (DFL 70-64), Upper house (DFL 34-33)
New Hampshire: Lower house (R 201-196, 3 ind.), Upper house (R 14-10)
Oregon: Upper house (D 17-12, 1 ind)
Pennsylvania: Lower house (D 102-101), Upper house (R 28-22)
Vermont: Coalition system
Virginia: Lower house (D 51-49), Upper house (D 21-19)
All of these nine states have a reasonably close balance of power between Democrats, Republicans, and (in some cases) independents and third parties. Two of them (Alaska and Vermont) have already adopted cooperative coalition systems in which members of different parties caucus together, providing a good opportunity for third parties to make an entrance. This has already occurred in the case of Vermont, where Vermont Progressive Party and Libertarian Party members have become legislators.
Another possibility that was not explored here are states such as Rhode Island, which have a clear party majority, yet whose legislatures have one or more independents currently in office. While it is unlikely that states in these situations will provide a platform for the ASP to achieve broad influence, they are still possibilities that should be explored.
Step Two: Identify Promising Districts
After identifying the most likely states for ASP, the next step is to profile each state and look for districts where the ASP has a reasonable possibility of electing a legislator. Generally speaking, the best places to look would be districts in which the majority party only has a slight advantage, increasing the probability that the ASP could get a plurality of the vote. Remember, the ASP’s goal would be to equalize the two opposing parties to the greatest possible extent in order to increase the party’s ability to play the tiebreaker. Let’s take a look at each state to see which areas would be most promising for the ASP:
Arizona
The Arizona state legislature is very closely balanced, with Republicans controlling the House (31-29) and the Senate (16-14) both by only two legislators. As of April 2024, Arizona's registered voters include 1,434,982 Republicans (35.36%), 1,192,205 Democrats (29.38%), and 1,369,644 ‘Others’ (33.75%), in addition to third party supporters, providing a relatively large market for the Solidarity Party.
In the 2022 general election, the following state senate districts had close races which Republicans won: District 2 (51.8%), District 13 (51.7%), and District 17 (51.2 %). In the state representative elections, most districts ran multiple candidate from at least one of the two parties, highlighting a key opportunity for a high-profile ASP candidate (e.g. a mayor) to come in and take a plurality. The following districts ran multiple Republican candidates against a Democratic competitor, one of whom won: District 1, District 4, District 10, District 14, District 16, District 17, District 19, District 27, District 28, and District 29.
Michigan
The Michigan state legislature is also very closely balanced, with Democrats controlling both the House (56-54) and the Senate (20-18) by only two legislators. In the 2022 state legislative elections, the following House elections were won by Democrats by a narrow margin: District 27 (50.8%), District 31 (52.3%), District 38 (51.8%), District 44 (52.2%), District 48 (53.1%), District 58 (51.3%), District 61 (52.0%), District 83 (52.8%), District 103 (49.8% plurality), and District 109 (53.0%). Likewise, the following senate elections were won by Democrats by a narrow margin: District 11 (52.7%), District 12 (50.1%), and District 35 (53.4%).
Minnesota
Minnesota has been controlled by Democrats for decades, despite having a majority of Republicans in most rural counties. The House is controlled by the Democrats by a margin of 6 (70-64) and the Senate by 1 (34-33). In 2022 the following House elections were won by Democrats by a narrow margin: District 7B (51.2%), District 14B (51.8%), District 18A (51.1%), District 32B (51.2%), District 35A (52.5%), District 35B (50.7%), District 36B (53.6%), District 47B (53.2%), District 48B (51.0%), District 54A (52.0%), District 55A (53.1%). The following Senate elections were won by Democrats by a narrow margin: District 3 (50.8%), District 4 (52.9%), District 14 (52.4%), District 36 (52.8%), District 41 (50.4%).
New Hampshire
New Hampshire has a more complex political makeup, with its General Court being controlled by Republicans in both the House (201-196, 3 ind.) and the Senate (14-10) by 2 and 4 legislators respectively, including three independent representatives. A large number of the districts for the House elect more than one representative, with each district running multiple candidates from each party. While this complicates the electoral situation, this means that a large number of House elections in New Hampshire could be winnable by plurality. In 2022, the following close races were won by Republicans in the Senate: District 9 (52.2%) and District 12 (51.2%).
Oregon
The politics of Oregon have been dominated by Democrats for decades. However, the Democratic hold a majority of the Senate by only 4, though this is complicated by the presence of a third-party senator belonging to the centrist Independent Party of Oregon (17-12, 1 ind). In the 2022 Oregon Senate election, the following close races were won by Democrats: District 3 (51.9 %), District 10 (53.4%), and District 20 (50.3%).
Pennsylvania
The Pennsylvania General Assembly has the distinction of being the only state legislature in the country to currently have chamber control split, with the House controlled by the Democrats (102-101) and the Senate by the Republicans (28-22).
In the 2022 Pennsylvania general election, the following were close races for the House in which Democrats won: District 118 (51.8%), District 144 (50.3%), and District 151 (49.6%). Likewise, the following were close races for the Senate in which Republicans won: District 6 (52.7%), District 16 (53.5%), and District 24 (51.5%).
Virginia
The Virginia General Assembly leans Democrat, with the House (51-49) and Senate (21-19) both controlled by two. The following close races in which Democrats won took place in the House of Delegates in 2021: District 10 (50.9%), District 21 (50.5%), District 31 (52.0%), and District 93 (51.6%). There were no close races which Democrats won in the 2019 Senatorial election.
Alaska and Vermont
These states pose a different challenge, as their legislatures rely on a system in which Democrats and Republicans form cooperative coalitions, rather than a simple two-party rivalry. While this type of environment should theoretically be more amenable to the ASP’s goals, finding strategic regions of these states to focus on will be more difficult, and will require more research in the future.
Next Steps: Looking to the Future
The above survey is designed to provide a starting point for researching strategic locations for the ASP to focus its activity. Of course, it’s always important to remember that the political scene can change rapidly; former swing states like Florida can become overwhelmingly dominated by one party, and states which once were safely in one camp have gone up for grabs. There are many factors which impact the competitiveness of a given election, and it is quite likely that the current political makeup of the US will shift somewhat over the next couple election cycles. Solidarians will need to be sensitive to these changes and adapt accordingly. However, the ASP needs to start somewhere, and these states and these districts appear to be the best places to start, at least for the time being.
Likewise, none of this is to say that ASP members in other states besides these nine don’t have a role to play. However, in order to the ASP to realistically begin to gain influence in the greater political world, these states have a critical importance which could make or break the ASP’s future prospects.
As the Solidarity Party moves forward with its ideals of solidarity and communitarianism, a strategic look at local and state elections will prove vital in the long-term viability of the Solidarian Option.